If you’re trying to predict where someone will be today—grabbing food, topping off the tank, snagging beer or cigarettes—don’t imagine a wide hunt. Most daily life happens in a tight orbit around home and routine routes.

The “tight orbit” of daily movement

Large-scale mobility studies show people repeat a small set of locations with a bounded “home range.” In mobile-phone trajectory data, individuals’ typical travel radius grows slowly and then plateaus—meaning most movement clusters close to home and habitual paths. Translation: routine stops are predictable and local. PubMed+1

Across all U.S. vehicle trips—not just commutes—the vast majority are short: trips under 6 miles account for a substantial share of all travel. That’s your baseline for “everyday errand distance.” Alternative Fuels Data Center

Food & groceries: usually within a mile or two (more in rural areas)

The USDA finds the median American lives 0.9 miles from the nearest food store, and the median distance to the third-nearest store (i.e., real choice) is 1.7 miles. In rural areas those medians stretch to 3.1 and 6.1 miles. Another USDA analysis shows that by 2010, 50% of the U.S. population lived within 2 miles of three supermarkets; 80% lived within 5 miles. Expect routine grocery trips to fall inside those bands. Economic Research Service+1

For lower-access households without close supermarkets, convenience stores absorb a bigger share of weekly food spend—evidence that people substitute to nearer options rather than traveling far. Economic Research Service

Convenience items (beer, cigarettes, snacks): hyper-local

Convenience stores are, well, convenient: 43% of Americans say they live within a mile of one; in rural communities, 86% say a c-store is within a 10-minute drive and often the only place for fuel and essentials. Expect beer/cigarette purchases at the closest corner store or one directly along the daily route. Convenience

Tobacco research backs the ultra-short distances: many residents live within 0.25–0.5 km (a few blocks) of a tobacco retailer, and higher retailer proximity/density correlates with higher use and lower cessation—i.e., people buy where it’s closest. American Journal of Public Health+2Tobacco Control+2

For alcohol, multiple studies show shorter distance to off-premise outlets is linked with higher purchasing and consumption; in practice, most metropolitan consumers travel <10 km for alcohol and will stretch a bit only when there’s a notable discount. PMC+1

Gasoline: on-the-way choices with minimal detours

About 80% of U.S. fuel is sold at convenience stores, and more than half of drivers go inside when fueling—so fuel stops double as quick-shop stops. But the key behavior is route convenience: drivers overwhelmingly choose stations on their path (home–work corridors, school runs), not far-off the route. Structural models using GPS traces of real refueling show drivers trade off tiny travel detours against price and time—small “on-the-way” advantages win. arXiv+4Convenience+4Convenience+4

Time-based radius for “routine purchases”

Consumer surveys consistently show people won’t travel far for everyday items: 93% say they keep routine purchases within 20 minutes, 87% within 15 minutes; reported medians were about 6 minutes for gas and 8 minutes for groceries. That aligns with the short trip length data above. (While this is a commercial survey, its figures track federal trip statistics.) blog.accessdevelopment.com+1

Practical targeting distances (use these as default search rings)

Urban / dense suburban

• Groceries/ready-to-eat: 0–2 miles primary, up to 3–4 miles secondary. Economic Research Service+1

• Beer/cigarettes/convenience: 0–1 mile; often within a few blocks of home or directly along the commute path. Convenience+1

• Gas: stations on the usual route; skip off-route by >0.5–1 mile unless price shock. ashleylanger.com+1

Suburban

• Groceries: 1–3 miles primary, up to 5 miles secondary. Economic Research Service

• Beer/cigarettes: 0–2 miles, usually the nearest c-store node at major intersections. Convenience

• Gas: along arterials used for commuting; minor detours only. ashleylanger.com

Rural

• Groceries: 3–6+ miles (median 3.1 to nearest; 6.1 to third-nearest). Economic Research Service

• Beer/cigarettes & fuel: nearest multi-service c-store within a 10-minute drive; often the town’s single node. Convenience

Why this matters for “find them now” work

1. Start with the corridor, not the circle. For fuel and convenience stops, map the subject’s home-to-work (or home-to-school/daycare) path first; weight stations and c-stores on-route. ashleylanger.com+1

2. Use tight rings for fast checks. Urban: 1–2 mi for food, ≤1 mi for c-stores/tobacco. Expand only if a known price/brand preference exists. Economic Research Service+1

3. Expect repetition. People habitually return to the same few nodes (predictable “home range”). Prior transactions or camera hits at a single store are strong predictors of return. PubMed

4. Mind time, not just distance. If it’s a quick grab (coffee, smokes), the fastest stop wins—even if another store is slightly closer “as the crow flies.” The 15- to 20-minute ceiling for routine trips is a hard behavioral boundary. blog.accessdevelopment.com

Source list (selected)

• USDA ERS on distances to food stores and access: median 0.9 miles to nearest store; rural medians longer; half of population within 2 miles of three supermarkets. Economic Research Service+1

• NACS industry stats & proximity to c-stores; fuel + in-store behavior. NACS Magazine+3Convenience+3Convenience+3

• AFDC (DOE) trip length distribution: majority of U.S. trips under 6 miles. Alternative Fuels Data Center

• Human mobility regularity (“bounded trajectories,” high predictability). PubMed+1

• Alcohol proximity & distance traveled patterns. PMC+1

• Tobacco outlet proximity/density and behavior. Tobacco Control+2American Journal of Public Health+2

• Gas station choice modeled with GPS data; on-the-way preference and tiny detours. ashleylanger.com+1

• Consumer time-radius for routine purchases (survey). blog.accessdevelopment.com